Tuesday, October 25, 2011

District 3-AAA Power Rankings - After Week 9

  1. Powell (10-0) - For the first time in school history, the Panthers posted back-to-back undefeated regular seasons, shutting out Central 34-0 in their season finale. Powell remains #2 in the state. Dy'shawn Mobley inched closer to another school record, passing Andrew Tudor for the 2nd most rushing yards in a season. He needs 152 yards to break Derek Milligan's record (2,007 yards in 2002). The Panthers have a bye week before they host a first round playoff game. The Panthers toughest task will be playing the postseason without top DBs Jonathan Strozyk (torn ACL) and Jonathan Staggs (severe concussion).
    • Current playoff projection: Quad 1 (5A) - #1 seed (vs. #8 Anderson County)
  2. Oak Ridge (6-3) - OR is firing on all cylinders after pounding Clinton last week. The Wildcats locked up 2nd place in the district and an automatic playoff berth. They host Campbell County on senior night this Friday.
    • Current playoff projection: Quad 2 (6A)
  3. Karns (6-3) - Big game against HVA this week. A win would give the Beavers 7 wins, a rivalry win, an improved playoff seed, and keep the Hawks out of the playoffs.
    • Current playoff projection: Quad 1 (6A)
  4. Anderson County (4-5) - Crucial win against HVA. The defense really stepped up against Dorian Eskridge. Turnovers are still plaguing this team, but a win against Clinton should put the Mavericks into the playoffs.
    • Current playoff projection: Quad 1 (5A) - #8 seed (at #1 Powell)
  5. Hardin Valley (5-4) - The wheels are starting to fall off for HVA. This team is leaning heavily on Dorian Eskridge, and it cost them against AC, who slowed them down enough to get the win. As weak as district 3-AAA is, 5 wins likely won't get HVA into the postseason. The Hawks need to beat Karns to clinch a playoff berth.
  6. Central (2-7) - Completely shutdown against Powell. Cody Blanc had 8 carries for -14 yards and 3 catches for 1 yard against the Panther 1st team defense. Mobley outran him on 2 of his long TD runs. Big rivalry game against Halls this week.
  7. Campbell County (3-6) - Kudos to Tuffy Shoupe, who's had a great season, and who shredded the Halls defense last Friday night. Tough game at OR this week.
  8. Halls (1-8) - Completely embarassed by CC last week. Looking for a big win in the Battle of Black Oak Ridge against Central.
  9. Clinton (0-9) - Beating AC would be like winning the super bowl for the Dragons. Clinton would love nothing more than to get that elusive win and keep AC out of the playoffs.
5A Playoff Outlook

Here are my 5A playoff projections, based on my predictions for week 10. These are definitely subject to change, depending on this week's results:

Quad 1 (easiest quad)
1 Powell (favorite)
2 Morristown West
3 South-Doyle
4 Cherokee
5 Sullivan South
6 Morristown East
7 Daniel Boone
8 Anderson County

1st Round
AC at Powell
SS at Cherokee
Mo East at SD
DB at Mo West

Quad 2
1 Columbia
2 Tullahoma
3 Knox West (favorite)
4 Ooltewah
5 Shelbyville
6 Centennial
7 Lenoir City
8 Cleveland

1st Round
Cleveland at Columbia
Shelbyville at Ooltewah
Centennial at West
LC at Tullahoma

Quad 3
1 Antioch
2 Gallatin (favorite)
3 Hendersonville
4 Beech
5 Clarksville
6 Springfield
7 Glencliff
8 Station Camp

1st Round
SC at Antioch
Clarksville at Beech
Springfield at Hendersonville
Glencliff at Gallatin

Quad 4 (toughest quad)
1 Henry County (favorite)
2 Ridgeway
3 Dyer County
4 Memphis East
5 Craigmont
6 Clarksville Northeast
7 Hamilton
8 Munford

1st Round
Munford at HC
Craimont at ME
Clarksville NE at DC
Hamilton at Ridgeway

Monday, October 17, 2011

District 3-AAA Power Rankings - After Week 8

  1. Powell (9-0) - Moves up to #2 in the state, following the 69-13 drubbing of Campbell County. Lost in Dy'shawn Mobley's stellar season is the great year Dustin McPhetridge is having. He had his best game of the year against the Cougars, rushing for 182 yards and 4 TDs (on 7 carries), while passing for 164 yards and 3 TDs (5-for-5 passing). Clinched their 2nd consecutive district title, and travel to Central with another chance to finish the regular season 10-0.
  2. Oak Ridge (5-3) - The Wildcats have clearly positioned themselves as the #2 team in the district, following their 42-7 win over Hardin Valley. One more win and the Wildcats should be a lock for the postseason. Should have no problems against Clinton and CC. Watch out for OR in the 6A playoffs.
  3. Hardin Valley (5-3) - Struggled both offensively and defensively against OR. This team relies solely on Dorian Eskridge on offense. They'll need him to come up big the next two weeks against Anderson County and Karns. The Hawks likely need one more win to clinch a playoff berth.
  4. Karns (6-3) - For the first time in 37 years, the Beavers will have a winning season, after edging AC 28-20. The win likely punched a playoff ticket for Karns. The Beavers would love to get the first playoff win in school history this November. Off this week, but a big game against HVA the following week.
  5. Anderson County (3-5) - The defense played a bit better against Karns, but they weren't good enough. The Mavs have a crucial game against HVA this week. A 6th loss would likely knock AC out of the playoffs.
  6. Halls (1-7) - Winable game against CC this week, before the Battle of Black Oak Ridge next week.
  7. Central (2-6) - Big test at home against Powell this week, before the Battle of Black Oak Ridge next week.
  8. Campbell County (2-6) - An injured Tuffy Shoupe played an impressive first half, but the Cougars just don't have the horses to hang with Powell. Looking for their 3rd win of the season against Halls this week.
  9. Clinton (0-8) - Could be a very ugly night for the Dragons at OR this week. Last chance for a win comes next week against AC.
Top 5 title contenders:
  • Powell
  • Knox West
  • Columbia
  • Henry County
  • Memphis East
Other contenders:
  • Tullahoma
  • Gallatin
  • Ridgeway

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

District 3-AAA Power Rankings - Week 7

  1. Powell (8-0) - Remains #3 in the state. Starters didn't play a down in the second half against Clinton, cruising 49-7. Powell hosts Campbell County this week. Panthers shouldn't face another tough test until the playoffs.
  2. Oak Ridge (4-3) - Impressive win against Karns, 35-14. Game really wasn't as close as the score indicated, as the OR defense dominated for 3+ quarters. Zullinger appears to have a sprained shoulder, and may be out for this week's game at Hardin Valley.
  3. Hardin Valley (5-2) - Dominated Halls, 37-12. Big game against OR this week, with the winner likely earning the #2 spot in district and an automatic playoff berth.
  4. Karns (5-3) - Struggled to get going against OR, until the game was out of hand. Huge game against Anderson County this week. A win gets the Beavers their first winning season since 1974.
  5. Anderson County (3-4) - How will the defense fair against Karns? The Mavs need to win 2 more games to make the playoffs. Should get one against Clinton, but will face 2 tough defenses (Karns and HVA) along the way.
  6. Halls (1-7) - Crushed by HVA last week. The Devils have the week off, before finishing the season against CC and Central.
  7. Central (2-6) - The offense came alive again, as the Bobcats cruised against CC. Central is playing their best football of the year so far. Off this week, before finishing the season against Powell and Halls.
  8. Campbell County (2-5) - Thumped by Central, 34-7. The Cougars had a tough matchup with Powell this Friday.
  9. Clinton (0-8) - Fortunately, the Dragons have a week off. They are a young team and will be better next season. Travels to OR next Thursday.
Top 5 title contenders:
  • Powell
  • Knox West
  • Columbia
  • Henry County
  • Memphis East
Other contenders:
  • Tullahoma
  • Gallatin
  • Ridgeway

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

District 3-AAA Power Rankings - Week 6

  1. Powell (7-0) - Cruised against Hardin Valley, but dropped to #3 in the state. Another huge offensive performance for Mobley/McPhetridge, while the Powell defense held HVA to under 200 total yards. Powell plays at winless Clinton this week. Panthers shouldn't face another tough test until the first Friday of November.
  2. Oak Ridge (3-3) - Throttled Anderson County last week. Zullinger's return gave the Wildcats a big lift. Huge game at Karns this Friday, followed by a trip to HVA, both with playoff implications.
  3. Hardin Valley (4-2) - Overmatched against Powell. Outside of a brilliant TD run by Eskridge early in the 1st quarter, the Hawks couldn't get anything going against the Panthers. Travel to Halls this week, with big games against OR and Karns looming.
  4. Karns (5-2) - Found their offense against Halls, and annihilated the Devils. As good as the Karns defense has been, this team could really be dangerous, now that their offense appears to be coming around. Another win guarantees the Beavers their first winning season since 1974, and could even lock up a playoff spot. Tough game against OR this week, followed by AC and HVA.
  5. Anderson County (3-4) - Blown out by OR. This team just can't seem to play any defense. The Mavericks have a week off before they head to Karns. The Mavs need to win at least 2 more games to have a shot at the playoffs. Should get one against Clinton, but will face 2 tough defenses (Karns and HVA) along the way.
  6. Halls (1-6) - Just when it looked like this team was turning the corner, they lay an egg against Karns. Still not sure what to make of this team, especially after last week. Tough game against HVA this week.
  7. Campbell County (2-4) - The Cougars still have a couple of winable games left to play (Central and Halls). Big game against the Bobcats this week.
  8. Central (1-6) - Got just enough offense to get their first win, against a winless Clinton squad. Plays CC this week, with a chance to extend the winning streak to 2 games.
  9. Clinton (0-7) - Barring some sort of miracle, this should be a winless season for the Dragons. Host Powell this week.
Top 5 title contenders:
  • Powell
  • Knox West
  • Columbia
  • Henry County
  • Memphis East
Other contenders:
  • Morristown West
  • Tullahoma
  • Gallatin
"Overrated" teams in 5A
  • Ridgeway
  • Dyer County
Sleeper teams in 5A
  • Lenoir City
  • Cleveland (figured something out against Red Bank)